The emergence of apps that allow users to bet on deportations, famines, and other events has sparked concerns about the commodification of uncertainty. These platforms, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, offer betting opportunities on a range of topics, from elections and bombings to divorce and economic indicators.
Proponents argue that these platforms can provide more accurate forecasts than traditional polling methods or news outlets, leveraging the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants. However, critics caution that the accuracy of these platforms is not as clear-cut, with some studies suggesting they may be prone to manipulation by powerful actors.
One notable example is Kalshi, which partnered with CNN and CNBC earlier this year, despite facing regulatory scrutiny for its alleged involvement in election interference. The company's CEO, Tarek Mansour, has said that the platform aims to "financialize everything" and create a tradable asset out of differences in opinion, which some see as a dystopian vision.
The integration of these betting platforms with mainstream news coverage has raised eyebrows among experts, who worry about the potential for misinformation and manipulation. As one expert noted, "Markets are composed of humans, not omniscient rational forecasters."
While some users may find value in these platforms, many others are concerned about their impact on our collective understanding of reality. By allowing users to bet on events like deportations or famines, these platforms seem to trivialize the very real human experiences they purport to predict.
The Intercept's editor-in-chief, Ben Messig, has warned that "the promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd" but also noted that "for a platform partnering with a news organization, a commitment to veracity does not appear to be its first priority."
As we navigate this uncharted territory, it's essential to scrutinize these platforms' claims and consider their potential impact on our democracy. By engaging in informed discussions and critically evaluating the information available, we can work towards a more accurate understanding of the world around us.
Proponents argue that these platforms can provide more accurate forecasts than traditional polling methods or news outlets, leveraging the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants. However, critics caution that the accuracy of these platforms is not as clear-cut, with some studies suggesting they may be prone to manipulation by powerful actors.
One notable example is Kalshi, which partnered with CNN and CNBC earlier this year, despite facing regulatory scrutiny for its alleged involvement in election interference. The company's CEO, Tarek Mansour, has said that the platform aims to "financialize everything" and create a tradable asset out of differences in opinion, which some see as a dystopian vision.
The integration of these betting platforms with mainstream news coverage has raised eyebrows among experts, who worry about the potential for misinformation and manipulation. As one expert noted, "Markets are composed of humans, not omniscient rational forecasters."
While some users may find value in these platforms, many others are concerned about their impact on our collective understanding of reality. By allowing users to bet on events like deportations or famines, these platforms seem to trivialize the very real human experiences they purport to predict.
The Intercept's editor-in-chief, Ben Messig, has warned that "the promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd" but also noted that "for a platform partnering with a news organization, a commitment to veracity does not appear to be its first priority."
As we navigate this uncharted territory, it's essential to scrutinize these platforms' claims and consider their potential impact on our democracy. By engaging in informed discussions and critically evaluating the information available, we can work towards a more accurate understanding of the world around us.
. On one hand, I can see how these prediction platforms could provide some valuable insights by tapping into collective wisdom. But on the other hand, it's also super unsettling to think that we're essentially creating a market for uncertainty. It's like, what happens when people start betting on stuff they don't fully understand? 
It feels like we're normalizing the idea of just throwing money at something because there's no clear winner or loser.
. We need to be super cautious here and make sure we're not just trading in our rational thinking for a quick buck.
like, what's next? betting on ppl gettin sick from climate change 
also think these platforms r exploitin ppl's fear & uncertainty for profit 
news outlets shd be holdin ppl accountable 4 misinformation instead of just partnerin with these platforms 
. And I mean, it's not like Kalshi partnering with CNN and CNBC wasn't a red flag – that just seems like a recipe for disaster to me 
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. It feels like these platforms are trying to turn human experiences into some kind of commodity or entertainment, which just doesn't sit right with me 
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. These platforms might sound cool, but have we considered the potential consequences? 
. We need to be careful how we use technology to predict & profit from human experiences. 
. And what's the point of even having these apps if they're not gonna be super transparent and accurate? It just feels like some big companies are trying to cash in on our fears and uncertainties 
. And what's up with the fact that some of these platforms are partnering with legit news orgs? That just seems like a recipe for misinformation 
. Can we please just stick to fact-checking and nuanced discussions instead of trying to make a quick buck off our hopes and fears? 
. It's wild to think that people are willing to put their money down on things like deportations or famines, when it's just so... uncertain 
. We need to be super careful not to let the desire for 'prediction' or 'insight' cloud our judgment. It's time to think about what kind of world we want to create, and whether these platforms are truly moving us in that direction 
It's also crazy how one platform can partner with a news org like CNN and still face regulatory scrutiny. What does that say about the state of journalism these days? 
. Like, just because people are placing bets on stuff doesn't mean it's gonna be more accurate than traditional methods? Give me a break! And don't even get me started on how this is gonna affect our understanding of reality - it's like we're desensitizing ourselves to the fact that deportations and famines are real, actual human experiences 
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. We need to make sure that our pursuit of knowledge isn't sacrificing our values or our humanity in the process 
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. On one hand, they do offer an interesting alternative to traditional polling methods 
. But on the other hand, by creating a market out of uncertainty, we're essentially putting a price tag on people's lives 
. I mean, what if someone puts a bet on something going wrong and then it doesn't? Does that mean they win money for being "right"? It just feels really messed up 
. And what's with this idea of "financializing everything"? Is that just a fancy way of saying we're turning everything into a bet? 
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what's next? Are we gonna put our money on who'll be the next president... or whose cat will post the most selfies on Instagram? 
these prediction markets thingies are a bit too much for me, I mean, can't we just stick to making informed decisions based on actual facts and not just because it's a good bet 
like what's next?! These platforms got people thinkin they're all smart & stuff, but honestly it feels like gamblin with ppl's lives 
the idea of harnessin the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants sounds cool, but when u factor in the potential for manipulation, it gets shady 
And what about all the people who dont have a voice or power to be heard on these platforms? Its like, how can we truly expect them to give an accurate prediction when their future is already being decided by ppl with more influence?