India's reliance on cheap Russian crude oil is proving to be a sticking point in its already strained relations with the US. The Trump administration has ramped up pressure on India by threatening 500% tariffs and pulling out of global initiatives if it doesn't halt its purchase of Russian oil. However, industry experts say that these sanctions are unlikely to have a lasting impact.
Despite the initial drop in Indian imports of Russian oil, analysts believe that Russia is now reorganising its supply chain to bypass US sanctions. New players, often shadow middlemen between Russian oil giants and refineries in countries like India, are emerging to fill the gap. It's likely just a matter of time before the full supply chain is reorganised, with most barrels supplied by companies other than Rosneft or Lukoil.
The discounted price of Russian crude oil has proven too enticing for India to resist. With prices at $9-10 per barrel cheaper than Saudi Arabian and Iraqi oil, buying Russian crude represents a significant bargain for refineries. Even the Indian government's stance on the matter is non-committal, only encouraging state and private refineries to act in their best interests.
One notable exception is Reliance Industries, India's largest private oil company, which has publicly stated its intention not to import Russian crude into its Jamnagar refinery. However, this move may be motivated more by EU sanctions preventing Russian-origin oil from being imported into the bloc than a genuine attempt to comply with US sanctions.
As Russia looks for alternative suppliers, analysts say that Venezuela could become an attractive option. With India having previously exported oil to Venezuela before sanctions were imposed, Reliance Industries is reportedly in talks with the US for authorisation to resume purchases of Venezuelan oil. This move would represent a significant shift in the company's energy strategy and could potentially provide it with access to cheap, sanctioned oil.
Despite the initial drop in Indian imports of Russian oil, analysts believe that Russia is now reorganising its supply chain to bypass US sanctions. New players, often shadow middlemen between Russian oil giants and refineries in countries like India, are emerging to fill the gap. It's likely just a matter of time before the full supply chain is reorganised, with most barrels supplied by companies other than Rosneft or Lukoil.
The discounted price of Russian crude oil has proven too enticing for India to resist. With prices at $9-10 per barrel cheaper than Saudi Arabian and Iraqi oil, buying Russian crude represents a significant bargain for refineries. Even the Indian government's stance on the matter is non-committal, only encouraging state and private refineries to act in their best interests.
One notable exception is Reliance Industries, India's largest private oil company, which has publicly stated its intention not to import Russian crude into its Jamnagar refinery. However, this move may be motivated more by EU sanctions preventing Russian-origin oil from being imported into the bloc than a genuine attempt to comply with US sanctions.
As Russia looks for alternative suppliers, analysts say that Venezuela could become an attractive option. With India having previously exported oil to Venezuela before sanctions were imposed, Reliance Industries is reportedly in talks with the US for authorisation to resume purchases of Venezuelan oil. This move would represent a significant shift in the company's energy strategy and could potentially provide it with access to cheap, sanctioned oil.