Iran's protests are a test of its ability to respond to growing internal and external pressures. The regime's use of the internet blackout is a clear attempt to suppress the spread of dissent, but it also highlights the uncertainty surrounding the unrest. Rocketing inflation and a tanking currency sparked the initial wave of protests in late December, but they have since broadened and escalated.
The Iranian government has long been dismissive of the regime's opponents, who have often predicted its demise. However, the current protests are different - they began in areas previously more supportive of the regime and have quickly gained momentum. The use of social media to mobilize protesters has allowed them to bypass traditional channels of dissent and reach a wider audience.
The response from the government has been brutal, with dozens of people, including children, already killed. The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has shifted his rhetoric to focus on "saboteurs" seeking to please foreign powers, particularly the US. This is a classic move by a regime under pressure - it attempts to delegitimize protesters and portray them as pawns of external forces.
However, this strategy may not be effective in the face of growing internal and external threats. The regime's economic room for manoeuvre is limited, and its axis of resistance has been severely degraded following the recent war with Israel and US attack on nuclear facilities. The supreme leader's health and age also raise concerns about the regime's ability to cope with crisis.
The US president's threat to intervene and "hit hard" if more protesters die may have given the leadership some pause, but it also risks exacerbating the situation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is already on high alert, and there are reports of pre-emptive military action being considered by Iran's defence council.
Ultimately, any attempt to address the grievances of Iranian citizens will require a fundamental shift in the regime's approach. The international community must be cautious not to simply exploit the legitimate concerns of protesters for their own ends, as this could lead to more bloodshed and suffering.
The Iranian government has long been dismissive of the regime's opponents, who have often predicted its demise. However, the current protests are different - they began in areas previously more supportive of the regime and have quickly gained momentum. The use of social media to mobilize protesters has allowed them to bypass traditional channels of dissent and reach a wider audience.
The response from the government has been brutal, with dozens of people, including children, already killed. The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has shifted his rhetoric to focus on "saboteurs" seeking to please foreign powers, particularly the US. This is a classic move by a regime under pressure - it attempts to delegitimize protesters and portray them as pawns of external forces.
However, this strategy may not be effective in the face of growing internal and external threats. The regime's economic room for manoeuvre is limited, and its axis of resistance has been severely degraded following the recent war with Israel and US attack on nuclear facilities. The supreme leader's health and age also raise concerns about the regime's ability to cope with crisis.
The US president's threat to intervene and "hit hard" if more protesters die may have given the leadership some pause, but it also risks exacerbating the situation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is already on high alert, and there are reports of pre-emptive military action being considered by Iran's defence council.
Ultimately, any attempt to address the grievances of Iranian citizens will require a fundamental shift in the regime's approach. The international community must be cautious not to simply exploit the legitimate concerns of protesters for their own ends, as this could lead to more bloodshed and suffering.