Frosty Silence vs Frozen Assets: Can Modi-Xi Handshake Thaw India-China Relations?

The 20-second handshake between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit has sparked a mix of reactions. While some see it as a breakthrough in the long-stalled India-China relationship, others are skeptical.

India and China have been engaged in delicate diplomacy since their Himalayan border clash in June 2020. They’ve made efforts to revive their relationship by resuming border talks, easing investment restrictions, and rebuilding people-to-people links through direct flights. However, persistent irritants such as national security concerns, trade disputes, and ongoing border tensions have hindered progress.

The Indian government’s decision to reject Alipay’s proposal to integrate with India’s instant digital payments system has raised eyebrows. This move is seen as a nod to India’s continued skepticism about Chinese investment in the country. Satellite images have revealed China’s attempts to advance into “contested” territory in Arunachal Pradesh, further straining relations.

Experts emphasize that sustained high-level dialogue and institutionalized cooperation are crucial for managing the rivalry between the two nations and exploring economic and regional opportunities. Alka Acharya notes that top leaders from both countries must engage in meaningful communication to ensure their relationship doesn’t flare up again.

However, beneath the surface-level optimism lies a more complex reality. Jabin T. Jacob cautions against viewing China’s intentions through rose-tinted glasses. “The Chinese long-term view of India is that it is a rival that needs to be managed,” he argues. “They see India as a ‘cat’s paw ally’ of the US against China.” This perception is reinforced by India’s membership in the Quad, which has been viewed with suspicion by many in China.

Lin Minwang points out that India’s distrust and suspicion towards China stand out compared to other regional players. “The world (for them) is only big enough for the US and China,” he notes. “It is one, whether they state it or not, a G-2 world where the US keeps to its corner and China keeps to its corner for now.”

The Modi-Xi handshake may have created a fleeting moment of warmth in an otherwise frosty relationship. However, until both sides can put aside their differences and engage in genuine cooperation, the future of India-China relations remains uncertain.

What’s at stake here is not just the bilateral relationship between two nations but also regional stability and global politics. As China continues to assert its influence in the Indo-Pacific, India must navigate a delicate balance between engaging with its giant neighbor while protecting its own interests.

The BRICS summit serves as a critical testing ground for Modi-Xi diplomacy. Their handshake may be a harbinger of a new era of cooperation or just another instance of diplomatic optics. The coming weeks and months will determine whether the Modi-Xi handshake marks the beginning of a thaw in relations or just another false start.