Baghdad’s High-Stakes Gamble: Can Trump and al-Zaidi Strike a Balance?

The visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi to Washington, DC, has sparked concern in both capitals. The trip is seen as an opportunity for Iraq to transition from crisis management with the US towards a more strategic economic partnership. However, beneath the surface lies a delicate balancing act that may prove impossible to execute.

Iraq’s energy sector has long been a point of contention between Baghdad and Washington due to ongoing tensions between the US and Iran. Sanctions have forced Iraq to rely heavily on oil exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz, making it vulnerable to any disruption of this critical waterway. A proposed energy and development fund with the US is seen as a potential lifeline, allowing Iraq to diversify its export routes and invest in its energy infrastructure.

For cooperation to succeed, Iraq must demonstrate its ability to provide a stable environment for US companies to operate. The Iraqi government has promised to restrict the flow of weapons to state control, a move aimed at placating the US and reining in the influence of pro-Iranian militias. However, these same militias have been vocal about their opposition to al-Zaidi’s disarmament plans.

The rejection of the prime minister’s visit by these militias suggests they will not easily give up their power and influence without a fight. As one observer noted, “the option of defending Iraq and its legitimate interests will remain on the table,” ominously hinting at future confrontations.

Al-Zaidi has promised to increase oil production to seven million barrels per day over the next three years, up from its current output of around 4.5 million bpd. This ambitious goal hinges on the government’s ability to deliver a stable environment and implement policies that will encourage US investment. However, can Iraq afford to choose between aligning with the US or moving closer to Iran?

Washington is unlikely to accept a divided sphere of influence in Iraq alongside Tehran, according to Ehsan al-Shammary, a professor of international studies at Baghdad University. Al-Zaidi’s task indeed appears almost impossible.

Lessons can be drawn from past attempts by Iraqi governments to balance their relations with the US and Iran. The 2020 agreement between Baghdad and Washington on the latter’s troop withdrawal from Iraq is a case in point. That deal was hailed as a major breakthrough but ultimately fell apart due to disagreements over security and military cooperation.

The success or failure of al-Zaidi’s visit will depend, in large part, on his ability to address fundamental issues of stability, security, and governance. His success may determine not only the fate of his government but also the direction of Iraq’s relations with both the US and Iran.

The outcome of this high-stakes gamble will have far-reaching implications for regional politics, trade, and energy markets. As the situation unfolds in Washington, one thing is clear: Baghdad’s room for maneuver has never been narrower. Will al-Zaidi choose to play it safe or take a bold step towards redefining Iraq’s relations with its key allies?

As the clock ticks down to September 30, when US combat forces are set to leave Iraq under the terms of the 2024 deal, al-Zaidi faces an unenviable task: navigating the treacherous waters of Iraq’s internal politics and forging a path that satisfies both Washington and Tehran. It’s a daunting challenge that will test his mettle as leader.

Ultimately, this visit is not just about striking agreements or sealing deals; it’s about defining the contours of Baghdad’s relationship with its key allies in an increasingly complex regional landscape.